A sustainable exit strategy: managing uncertainty, minimising harm

The lockdown imposed in the UK to slow the spread of Covid-19 has saved many lives. Across Europe, only full lockdown has worked to reduce the reproduction number of Covid-19 below 1, slowing the rate of spread and buying time. But the economic, social and other health consequences of the suppression measures are severe. The Office for Budget Responsibility anticipates a 35 per cent fall in GDP in Q2 if current restrictions remain in force through June, and unemployment is expected to rise by 2 million to 10 per cent. The longer lockdown goes on, the greater the chance of a significant permanent reduction in living standards.

A sustainable strategy for Covid-19 that limits the damage to both public health and the economy is needed. Governments can act by issuing a contingent exit plan outlining the stages involved in reopening, what each stage will mean for different types of businesses and individuals, and the conditions required to move between them. Such a plan, as explained in the paper, would allow businesses and people to plan, and begin to look to the future.

Authors: I. Mulheirn, S. Alvis, L. Insall, J. Browne, C. Palmou

Read the paper here. 

NGO/Civil Society Document, Policy & Policy Analysis
Communicable diseases, Governance, Health in All Policies, Economy of Wellbeing, Health Impact Assessment, sustainable development, Health systems and services, primary health care, integrated systems, prevention services, health workforce
United Kingdom

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